Micro Cap Opportunities – Q3 2025 Commentary
Categorised in: Commentaries, Micro Cap Opportunities Commentaries, Q3 2025
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Market Review The Russell Microcap® Index returned 17.03% in the third quarter of 2025 and is now up 15.74% on a year-to-date basis. This is a dramatic recovery from the 14.39% decline the index experienced in the first quarter of the year. The primary driver behind this resurgence in index performance has been the performance of stocks tied to the artificial intelligence theme, largely focused on data center development, nuclear power, AI applications, and the repositioning of bitcoin miners to run AI workloads. Energy was the best performing sector in the index during the quarter, returning 37.09% due to strong performance from companies exposed to nuclear power. The worst performing sector was Communication Services, which declined 1.66%. Performance Recap The KCM Microcap Opportunities Composite returned 11.33% (gross of fees) and 11.19% (net of fees) in Q325, underperforming the Russell Microcap® Index by 571 basis points (gross) and 584 basis points (net). Stock selection (-451bps) was the driver of underperformance this quarter. The strongest performing sector on a relative basis was Financials, which added 55bps, entirely driven by stock selection (+85bps). The biggest detractor during the quarter was Health Care, with 286bps of relative underperformance with biotechnology and pharmaceuticals being the primary areas of weakness. Within biotechnology, the KCM strategy actually outperformed the benchmark from a return perspective (KCM Microcap Opportunities strategy was up 41.21% vs. benchmark up 38.47%); however, our underweight vs. benchmark was the driver of relative underperformance. Underperformance in Pharmaceuticals was driven by one negative data readout of an owned name, compounded by our underweight vs. benchmark. Additional performance information is included in the table below.
Data as of 09/30/2025 The largest individual detractor from relative portfolio performance in Q3 was a developer and operator of data centers, primarily in North Dakota. The stock is a benchmark constituent that is not owned in the portfolio. The company’s stock rallied in Q3 – returning nearly 128% – as investors priced in more value for the company’s existing footprint and future development plans. The stock detracted 57 bps from relative performance in the quarter. The strongest-performing stock (+68bps) in the quarter was a provider of semiconductor equipment used in testing substrates for chip manufacturers. Management launched a new wafer-level testing system for semiconductor chip manufacturers. The potential of this product could be significant allowing chip manufacturers to improve overall yields by identifying faulty wafers before a chip is completely manufactured. During the quarter, management announced a few pilot programs that we believe could turn into sizeable orders next year. Given the significant outperformance in the quarter, we did partially trim the position but continue to hold a sizeable weight in the strategy. Outlook For the past two quarters, the Russell Microcap Index performance has been dominated by the AI theme. At 10/10/25, 9 of the 10 largest weightings in the index are either AI application companies or “AI enablers” – companies in the power or data center space. These 10 companies now represent nearly 10% of the index and have a weighted average market cap of $5.4B. While we believe that AI is a game changing technology with differentiated growth prospects, most of these businesses don’t align well with our investment and valuation approach. While the portfolio isn’t completely without holdings that benefit from the AI theme, underexposure of the portfolio to the AI-oriented stocks has weighed on relative performance over the past two quarters. Our team continues to assess the prospects of these businesses and while we don’t rule out making selective investments in this space in the future, we would expect the portfolio to remain underweight in the near term. The basis for this stance is our assessment of a reasonable set of scenarios for the next few years compared to the implied valuations being assigned to these businesses. We continue to strive to identify companies that are misunderstood or are implementing company-specific changes that are likely to drive improvements over the intermediate term. This approach has served us well over time, and we expect it to add value for clients in the long term. As always, we thank you for your support, and please don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions or concerns. Sincerely, |
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Sean McMahon Portfolio Manager |
Anna Bunn, Ph.D. Assistant Portfolio Manager |
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