Small Cap Select – Q3 2024 Commentary

The Market:

In the third quarter, small-cap stocks posted strong returns, building on their year-to-date gains. Inflation continued to ease, and despite some volatility in labor market data, the US economy consistently added jobs. Additionally, economic growth indicators remained robust. This combination of stabilizing prices and a steadying labor market led the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by half a percent, exceeding expectations. While the market experienced significant volatility over the three-month period, the combination of macroeconomic data and the interest rate cut ultimately supported the strong equity returns.

Performance:

The Select Composite returned 7.76% (gross of fees) and 7.54% (net of fees) during the third quarter, compared to a 9.27% return for the Russell 2000®. Year-to-date, the Select Composite has gained 18.99% (gross of fees) and 18.26% (net of fees), while the Russell 2000® returned 11.17%. Performance across individual accounts may vary due to client-specific restrictions or cash flows.  Additional performance is included in the table below.

Data as of 9/30/2024

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut influenced which styles of equities performed better throughout the quarter. Companies with lower return-on-equity, no sales, or negative profitability experienced the largest gains. As the Select portfolio generally has less exposure to these lower-quality names, it appreciated less than the broader market as a result.

Our most challenged sector during the quarter was Consumer Staples, where a provider of cosmetics and skin care was our largest headwind to performance.  The stock suffered as their sales growth rate moderated over the summer months. Despite this, it continues to significantly outpace competitors and gain market share. The stock has been a strong outperformer over the previous few years, and while we trimmed our position as it appreciated, we continue to hold a stake. An oil and gas producer, also detracted from performance as oil prices declined and production slightly missed expectations. We remain invested as we believe the market underappreciates its deleveraging potential.

In contrast, Financials was our strongest-performing sector, with an insurance brokerage firm being our largest positive contributor. The company is successfully executing on its strategy to improve margins and cash generation, resulting in a significant valuation uplift. We believe the company is well positioned for continued growth and an improved leverage profile, and we remain invested. Another strong performer was a regional bank. The regional banking sector benefited from the Federal Reserve rate cuts, and this company was no exception. The company continues to broaden payment relationships and protect its industry-leading margins by migrating their loan book to more fixed-rate products, which aligns with our thesis. We trimmed our position as the stock appreciated but maintain a significant investment.

Portfolio Characteristics:

During the quarter, we increased our weighting to cyclical industries and are now only slightly underweight compared to the benchmark. We remain overweight in Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Staples and underweight in Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Energy. As always, our sector allocations are driven by where we find the most attractive investments.

 The Future:

Key macroeconomic indicators are stable or improving, and the interest rate cutting cycle has begun. This increased stability should help corporations in their planning and smooth out demand fluctuations. However, since the Federal Reserve initiated its rate cut in mid-September, longer-term interest rates have risen, and inflation remains above the 2% target. Additionally, uncertainty around federal policy looms as the U.S. Presidential Election unfolds in the fourth quarter. Amid a solid economic outlook and pockets of uncertainty, we are maintaining a balanced portfolio, particularly regarding exposure to economically sensitive industries, generally aligned with the benchmark. Our focus remains on identifying companies that we believe can execute unique strategies for value creation, positioning us to adapt to and capitalize on shifting market dynamics.

Thank you for your continued confidence in us.  Should you have any questions or concerns, never hesitate to call.

Sincerely,

Portfolio Manager

Important Disclosures

Kennedy Capital Management LLC (“KCM”) is a Delaware limited liability company headquartered in Missouri.  KCM is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Registration with the SEC does not imply any level of skill or training. Clients of the Firm include U.S. corporations, pension and profit sharing funds, colleges and universities, trusts, not-for-profit organizations, foundations, and individuals. KCM claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). GIPS® is a registered trademark of CFA Institute. CFA Institute does not endorse or promote this organization, nor does it warrant the accuracy or quality of the content contained herein. GIPS® are a set of standardized, industry-wide ethical principles that provide investment firms with guidance on calculating and reporting their investment results to prospective clients to ensure fair representation and full disclosure of an investment firm’s performance history.

Although the statements of fact and data in this report have been obtained from, and are based upon, sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions included in this report constitute the Firm’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. A complete list of all securities recommended by KCM in the preceding year, a fully compliant GIPS composite report, and the list of composite descriptions are available upon request from KCM at 10829 Olive Blvd., Suite 100. St. Louis, MO, 63141.

The Small Cap Select Composite invests in small cap value and small cap growth companies that demonstrate valuation below, return on assets above and return on equity above those of the Russell 2000® Index, while observing tax sensitivity strategies. For comparison purposes the composite is measured against the Russell 2000® Index. The U.S. Dollar is the currency used to express performance.

Composite specific data provided within this presentation has been calculated from accounts that are discretionary as defined in this paragraph. The assets shown are derived only from discretionary accounts. Non-discretionary accounts, as defined by KCM, are accounts that are not included in the composite due to one or any combination of the following criteria: there were significant cash inflows or outflows within the account; the account’s asset level did not meet the minimum requirement to remain in the composite; the account assets are managed by others using our non-discretionary model. The temporary removal of such an account occurs at the beginning of the month and the account re-enters the composite the month after the criteria has been met.

Performance returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross of fee returns reflect the deduction of transaction costs and custodian fees but do not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees. Net of fee performance is calculated using gross returns less the actual applicable annual management fee applied monthly. Past performance is not indicative of future results. A client’s return will be reduced by the advisory fees as described in Form ADV Part 2A and other expenses incurred by the account. For example, an annual advisory fee of 1% compounded quarterly over 10 years will reduce a gross 14.44% annual return to a net 13.32% annual return. Form ADV Part 2A is available upon request.

The performance figures reported herein are unaudited, may be based upon information obtained via electronic data sources (”feeds”) and may be subject to change. Data feeds from many of KCM clients’ selected custodians are obtained through third party sources, and are used to compare custodial data to KCM’s client account records as frequently as daily. Monthly, KCM reviews clients’ account holdings along with cash and share quantities against the custodial statements. In some instances, variances may exist between final audited custodial information and the information KCM obtains via such data feeds. Generally, any such variances are researched and reconciled within thirty days of the period end.

The information provided should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in a KCM portfolio at the time you receive this letter or that securities sold have not been repurchased. Allocations among industries, sectors and securities may vary and are subject to change without notice. Any securities discussed do not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. It should not be assumed that any of the industry or sector allocation decisions mentioned, or securities transactions or holdings discussed were or will be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein.

Sector Weightings are subject to change at any time.  Sectors are based on the Global Industry Classification Standard (“GICS”) classification scheme and are measured as a percentage of the total COMPOSITE in terms of asset value as of the date indicated above.  Individual client portfolios may be different based on variations in security purchase price and date, and individual client restrictions.

GICS was developed by and is the exclusive property and a service mark of Morgan Stanley Capital International, Inc. (”MSCI”) and Standard & Poor’s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (”S&P”) and is licensed for the use by KCM. Neither MSCI, S&P, nor any other party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such standard or classification (or the results thereof),and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such standard or classification. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, S&P, any of their affiliates or any third party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages.

Allocations to various assets classes change over time and deviate from any stated or targeted percentages of a total portfolio as a result of market conditions and reallocation decisions. Therefore, nothing herein reflects a static portfolio allocation that will remain the same or match stated target allocations of asset classes.

Russell Investment Group is the source and owner of the Russell Index data contained or reflected in this material and all trademarks and copyrights related thereto.  The presentation may contain confidential information and unauthorized use, disclosure, copying, dissemination or redistribution is strictly prohibited.  This is a presentation of Kennedy Capital Management.  Russell Investment Group is not responsible for the formatting or configuration of this material or for any inaccuracy in Kennedy Capital Management’s presentation thereof.   

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000®  Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 7% of the total market capitalization of that index, as of the most recent reconstitution. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 2000^® is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased small-cap barometer and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the true small-cap opportunity set.

The Russell 2000® Index is used as the benchmark.  The Index is unmanaged and represents total returns including reinvestment of dividends.  The benchmark is used for comparative purposes only and generally reflects the comparable risk or investment style of the Firm’s strategy.  The investment portfolios underlying the Index are different from the investments in the portfolios managed by the Firm.  Certain accounts may also use other benchmarks not listed in the GIPS composite report. The Verification and Performance Examination Report does not cover the benchmark returns included in the GIPS composite report.  Investors cannot invest directly in an Index.